Tropical Update: So Far, So Good


An area of disturbance in the Caribbean has dissipated, and is no longer a potential threat. We will likely be getting some rain this weekend and potentially some thunderstorms.

The bigger area of concern this week, Invest 96L (areas of disturbance that have not yet developed are labeled “invest”), is still making its way toward the Caribbean but forecasts have dropped the likelihood of formation into a tropical depression from 70 percent to 40 percent over the next five days. The National Hurricane Center shows no indication of a potential tropical depression strengthening into a storm at this time.

Invest 96L is still an unorganized system as it heads toward the Caribbean. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 40 percent chance of formation over the next five days. (Levi Cowan,

Remember, five day forecasts are less than perfect. If formation does happen, the models are split between it going into the Caribbean and weakening over land, or heading up into the Atlantic.


Sea surface temperatures off the coast of Africa are lower than usual, and a system that seemed to be forming has weakened.

The hurricane season is just starting to ramp up. Most storms form in September as sea surface temperatures rise.